Recruiting Revisited: How the class of 2016 ranks four years later

At the start of 2016, Ed Orgeron was not the king of college football. He was LSU’s defensive line coach. Joe Burrow was a freshman backup at Ohio State, still a long way away from stardom. The December early signing period did not exist. Neither did the transfer portal. Coaches were prohibited from retweeting recruits. The fax machine was on its way out even then, sure, but still somewhat usable. So much has changed in four years.

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As we approach another signing day, it’s time once again to embrace the almighty power of hindsight. We’re ready to assess how college football’s most touted recruiting classes from four years ago actually panned out. It’s time to re-rank the best recruiting classes of 2016.

We’ve made this an annual tradition at The Athletic, beginning with our re-ranks of the class of 2014 and the class of 2015. The purpose of this project is to recognize the programs and coaching staffs who do the best job of identifying great players, developing them, retaining them and winning with them. This year, our revised top 25 includes 11 classes that did not crack the top 25 of the 247Sports Composite team rankings in 2016. And 17 of these classes ended up outperforming those signing day expectations.

The point system we’re using for this is no different than in past years. Much like the recruiting industry’s five-star rating metric, we’re using a basic 0-to-5 scale.

5 points: All-American, award winner, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution

To track how these classes fared, we’re counting 2016 scholarship signees, transfers who joined the program in 2016 and walk-ons in this class who were later put on scholarship or developed into starters. Each player in a class gets a score from 0 to 5 points based on what they’ve achieved during their playing careers. The intent here is not to project what they might accomplish in 2020 if they’re returning as fifth-year seniors but to stick to what they’ve proven so far.

These classes tend to end up with roughly 25 signees, but some signed many more and some ended up with significantly fewer. Because recruiting classes vary in size, we focus on the class average (total points divided by total signees). The hit rate listed with each class is the percentage of signees who did not leave the program via transfer, dismissal, ineligibility or injuries. Players who got their degrees and chose to become grad transfers are not deemed misses.

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In addition to evaluating production and retention, our rankings also weigh a program’s success during this four-year period. We add a bonus to each team’s average, derived from its total number of wins from 2016 through 2019. Thus, the adjusted average for a class is its average score plus its wins bonus. For example, LSU went 42-11 over these four years, so its class average received a bonus of 0.42.

Like last year, the battle for the No. 1 spot in these rankings came down to two programs, and nobody else really came close. And it was the same two schools that sat atop our rankings a year ago. But the order has changed. Here is our re-ranked top 25 for the class of 2016.

1. Clemson

Adjusted average: 3.68
Hit rate: 96%
Class rank in 2016: 11th
Four-year record: 55-4
Top signees: LB Isaiah Simmons, DT Dexter Lawrence, CB Trayvon Mullen, OL John Simpson, OL Tremayne Anchrum

In the moments after the Tigers’ 2015 season ended in heartbreak with a 45-40 national championship loss to Alabama, Dabo Swinney knew just how close they really were. He proclaimed that Clemson had all the ingredients in place for sustained success. And he vowed they were just getting started.

“There’s no doubt that we will be back,” Swinney said. “It won’t be 34 years before we’re gonna be back, I promise you that.”

The 2016 class they signed one month later reflected the Tigers’ trajectory. This was not one of those monster classes they’re signing nowadays — more like a warning sign of the level of recruiting Swinney and his staff were capable of reaching. They had formally arrived as national title contenders. The Tigers could start selling recruits not on ambitious hopes but on reality, that they were only a few plays — and maybe a few players — away from winning it all. That message proved powerful. Clemson won battles for six top-100 recruits in this cycle, including Lawrence, the nation’s No. 2 overall prospect. And those who came became champions.

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This Clemson class has never not gone to the College Football Playoff. They have two national title rings. Dynastic expectations are all they’ve known, and they’ve lived up to them. When Lawrence, Mullen and Tre Lamar went pro after three years, we got a chance to see even more of these signees shine in 2019. Eleven of them started games for the Tigers and helped push their win streak to 29 in a row. And they had an awful lot of fun along the way, too.

The incredible retention rate of this class is a credit to the culture they’ve helped build. Before Shaq Smith and Tavien Feaster moved on as grad transfers last offseason, the only other 2016 signee who had actually left the program was backup QB Zerrick Cooper. And he became an all-conference player at FCS Jacksonville State.

As our Andy Staples wrote back in December, one of the great traits of this class is the success of some of its lowest-rated signees. Clemson stumbled upon Simmons late in the recruiting cycle — Swinney has confessed he had no idea about the kid until right before signing day — and developed the hybrid defender into one of college football’s best players and a likely top-10 pick. K’Von Wallace was a last-minute find, too. The bet Swinney made on Nolan Turner paid off. Developmental three-star takes like Anchrum and James Skalski emerged as key starters. Even as their access to elite talent improves year after year, this staff’s eye for talent and fit is as good as it gets.

2. Alabama

Adjusted average: 3.48
Hit rate: 73%
Class rank in 2016: 1st
Four-year record: 52-5
Top signees: OT Jonah Williams, DT Quinnen Williams, RB Josh Jacobs, QB Jalen Hurts, CB Trevon Diggs

There’s a strong case to be made that this was the best class of 2016, no matter what the grades say, because the sheer amount of NFL-caliber star power here is absolutely unreal. Five of these Crimson Tide signees got drafted last year, and three were first-rounders. Diggs and Terrell Lewis should get drafted early this spring, too. Hurts does still count as a member of this class and made an incredible impact, earning SEC Offensive Player of the Year as a freshman and leading two runs to the national championship game.

In all, Alabama found more than a dozen future starters in the 2016 class, which is actually impressive when you recognize how loaded the classes were that came immediately before and after them. There were a few notable misses (B.J. Emmons, Charles Baldwin, Kendell Jones) but not too much attrition. Just to put this ranking in perspective, Alabama did finish with the No. 1 class in our 2015 re-rank project. The adjusted average for that class was 3.19. So by that measure, this class with its 3.48 average was even stronger and should be remembered as one of the best of the decade.

3. Florida

Adjusted average: 3.19
Hit rate: 89%
Class rank in 2016: 12th
Four-year record: 34-16
Top signees: DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, OL Jawaan Taylor, RB Lamical Perine, LB David Reese II, DE Jachai Polite

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The top two classes in this revised ranking were extremely predictable. But the No. 3 spot? Here’s a little bit of a surprise. The first full recruiting class of the Jim McElwain era ended up being way more productive than expected. The players who signed in 2016 went through a coaching change during their second year in the program, but nearly all of them stayed on board. Only three signees — Jordan Smith, McArthur Burnett and Antonneous Clayton — ended up transferring prior to graduating.

In hindsight, maybe this ranking does kind of make sense? Dan Mullen inherited a group with a lot of potential and found immediate success, winning 21 games in their first two years together. The 2017 season was an abject disaster, no question, but this class played an important role in helping get the Gators back on track. This class hasn’t had any All-Americans but did produce 16 future starters, three of whom — Taylor, Polite and Gardner-Johnson — were drafted in 2019.

4. Notre Dame

Adjusted average: 3.07
Hit rate: 78%
Class rank in 2016: 15th
Four-year record: 37-14
Top signees: CB Julian Love, DE Julian Okwara, DE Khalid Kareem, WR Chase Claypool, QB Ian Book

Notre Dame finishing in the top five of this re-rank is sort of fascinating when you consider the timing. As coach Brian Kelly sized up what comes next for his program in December prior to the Irish’s Camping World Bowl win over Iowa State, he shared an ambition that’s been on his mind lately. He said his viewpoint is changing when it comes to national recruiting and how their classes compare to college football’s top talent factories.

“We want to break out of the 15th-ranked or the 10th-ranked, and we want to get into that next echelon,” Kelly said. “And so, philosophically, we have to do some things to get to that level.”

What does it take for the Irish to get there? Great question. But terrific classes like this one put them in position to start thinking that way. This 2016 group helped catapult the 2018 Irish into the College Football Playoff. Nine members of the class started against Clemson in the semifinal, and every single one of them became multi-year starters for the program. This 23-man haul really only had four misses, too. This class developed about as well as you could hope and has provided a ton of leadership. The Irish have recruited the right kind of guys. The question now: What will it take to achieve this kind of developmental success with even better raw talent? For Kelly and the Irish, that’s the key to consistent CFP contention.

5. Georgia

Adjusted average: 3.07
Hit rate: 75%
Class rank in 2016: 6th
Four-year record: 44-12
Top signees: S J.R. Reed, WR Mecole Hardman, OL Solomon Kindley, DT Tyler Clark, WR Javon Wims

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Transition classes are never easy, and Kirby Smart and his staff found a lot of success in how they attacked this one. They managed to hold onto the early enrollees and the core of the class they inherited. They hit the road and added some big-time talent in January and February with Hardman, Kindley, Isaac Nauta, Riley Ridley and Tyler Simmons. And they were careful not to reach too much, knowing it was wiser to save spots for a 2017 recruiting class that became one of the nation’s best. And later that summer, they happened to find the steal of the class in Reed, an unheralded transfer from Tulsa who developed into a consensus All-American and Thorpe Award finalist.

Smart has established a dominant recruiting operation in Athens ever since this class — more top-three classes, more five-stars, way more hype — but this initial group was full of future starters who contributed to three SEC East titles and came oh-so-close to winning a national championship.

6. Michigan

Adjusted average: 3.06
Hit rate: 72%
Class rank in 2016: 8th
Four-year record: 37-15
Top signees: LB Devin Bush Jr., DE Rashan Gary, OL Ben Bredeson, CB David Long Jr., CB Lavert Hill

This was Jim Harbaugh’s famous first full recruiting class at Michigan, the one that cranked up all the hype and hope for the years ahead. Four years later, the results of this class feel fairly reflective of the Harbaugh era. This group was undeniably loaded from a talent standpoint. And it probably should’ve won more than 37 games.

This class had everything: top-end talent, multi-year starters, leaders and depth. Bush became a consensus All-American. Gary, the nation’s No. 1 overall recruit, became a first-rounder. The list of signees who made more than 20 starts for the Wolverines is impressively long: Bush, Gary, Bredeson, Long, Hill, Josh Metellus, Khaleke Hudson, Michael Onwenu, Carlo Kemp, Sean McKeon, Quinn Nordin and Will Hart. Most of them earned All-Big Ten recognition in 2019. Most of them should play in the NFL.

It’s tough to describe a class as stacked as Michigan’s as being disappointing. They didn’t win a Big Ten title during these four years, and they didn’t beat Ohio State. But it’s fair to say they helped Harbaugh set a strong foundation for consistent success, one that future classes need to capitalize on.

7. Minnesota

Adjusted average: 3.04
Hit rate: 88%
Class rank in 2016: 46th
Four-year record: 32-19
Top signees: DB Antoine Winfield Jr., WR Tyler Johnson, LB Carter Coughlin, LB Thomas Barber, OL Conner Olson

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This class signed to play for former head coach Tracy Claeys. No way could they have imagined what they were getting a year later when P.J. Fleck arrived in the Twin Cities. When a fiery coach like Fleck comes in preaching culture change and building a brand new foundation, that usually leads to a lot of roster attrition for classes like these. The Gophers’ players and coaches deserve a ton of credit, then, for what they’ve built together because this class really only had two departures after Fleck took over (and one was Drew Hmielewski, who opted to focus on baseball).

Eight members of this class were starters on the Gophers’ 2019 squad that made the leap from seven wins to 11. Winfield earned consensus All-America honors as a redshirt sophomore. Johnson established himself as an All-Big Ten wideout, and Coughlin’s 22.5 career sacks were third-most in school history. Fleck will forever be able to point to this class and the standard it established as indisputable evidence that the Gophers’ culture and their unique way of doing things works.

8. Ohio State

Adjusted average: 3.01
Hit rate: 68%
Class rank in 2016: 4th
Four-year record: 49-6
Top signees: DE Nick Bosa, QB Dwayne Haskins, S Jordan Fuller, OL Michael Jordan, LB Malik Harrison

Make no mistake, this was absolutely not a bad class for Urban Meyer and Ohio State, even by the program’s incredibly high standards. Bosa and Haskins were inarguably two of the very best players of the entire 2016 recruiting cycle. The Buckeyes’ 2016 haul included six players who would go on to earn first- or second-team All-Big Ten recognition, and eight members of the class started games for the 2019 squad that got back to the College Football Playoff and won a third consecutive Big Ten title. If you prefer to judge these classes by the top 10 players they produced, Ohio State is right there with the best of the best.

But, in fairness, if you compare this group with the incredible 2017 class (trust me, that one is going to age well in next year’s re-rank), you’ll start to understand why the Buckeyes ended up in this spot. The class average is weighed down a bit by seven signees who didn’t contribute much and ended up transferring. But this class still produced many more hits than misses.

9. Utah

Adjusted average: 2.97
Hit rate: 81%
Class rank in 2016: 37th
Four-year record: 36-18
Top signees: RB Zach Moss, DE Bradlee Anae, OL Garett Bolles, DB Julian Blackmon, DT Leki Fotu

Now this is really an exceptional class. The Utes have one of the more unique recruiting operations among Power 5 programs. Under Kyle Whittingham, they’ve consistently done a terrific job of identifying and landing underrated gems and impactful transfers while also signing high school players who may take two-year missions and join the program in the future. And they hit the jackpot with this group, which produced the Pac-12’s Offensive Player of the Year, three All-Americans, several more all-conference players and, surely, lots of future draft picks.

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This class had the superb Hallandale Trio of Moss, Tyler Huntley and Demari Simpkins. This class had the dominant defensive line duo of Anae and Fotu. This class had Blackmon, who made The Athletic’s All-America team. This class had Bolles, a first-round draft pick in 2017. This class even had All-American punter Mitch Wishnowsky, who just played in the Super Bowl on Sunday night. And those are just the headliners. More than 20 members of this sizable class stayed in the program and played a role in the Utes’ back-to-back Pac-12 South titles.

10. Washington

Adjusted average: 2.95
Hit rate: 80%
Class rank in 2016: 29th
Four-year record: 40-14
Top signees: S Taylor Rapp, CB Byron Murphy, OL Nick Harris, DE Levi Onwuzurike, DB Myles Bryant

For the third year in a row, a Washington recruiting class that was ranked outside the top 25 on signing day has made the top 10 of our recruiting re-rank. Chris Petersen clearly knew what he was talking about when he preached the importance of identifying O.K.G.s. (Our Kind of Guys) in the recruiting process.

This was a smaller class of just 20 signees, but only four did not pan out. Rapp left as an All-American, and he and Murphy were both selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Six of the nine future starters in this class went on to earn first- or second-team All-Pac-12 honors during their careers. An 8-5 finish wasn’t quite what this group was aiming for in 2019, but they still contributed to three 10-plus win seasons, two Pac-12 titles and a College Football Playoff appearance.

11. LSU

Adjusted average: 2.86
Hit rate: 67%
Class rank in 2016: 2nd
Four-year record: 42-11
Top signees: LB Devin White, CB Greedy Williams, CB Kristian Fulton, OL Lloyd Cushenberry, DL Rashard Lawrence

This was the final recruiting class of the Les Miles era. Did it yield some elite players? Absolutely. Devin White became the No. 5 pick in the 2019 draft, and Williams was a consensus All-American. Fulton emerged as a terrific corner once he was reinstated in 2018. And the leadership that Cushenberry, Lawrence and the members of this class provided helped turn the Tigers into national champions.

The only reason they’re ranked here is that one-third of the class ultimately did not pan out and left the program, and one-third ended up being reserves who haven’t made significant contributions. The Tigers’ next two recruiting classes produced most of the stars of their magical 2019 season, and there’s no question they will rate among the very best of future re-ranks. Ed Orgeron and his staff did a great job with the players they inherited, but they’ve clearly taken LSU’s recruiting, development and talent retention to a much higher level.

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12. Memphis

Adjusted average: 2.84
Hit rate: 69%
Class rank in 2016: 61st
Four-year record: 38-16
Top signees: WR Damonte Coxie, OL Dustin Woodard, QB Riley Ferguson, DT Jonathan Wilson, DE Bryce Huff

The top Group of 5 class in our re-rank belongs to the Tigers and Mike Norvell, who had two months to recruit these guys. Among the 26 players who ended up in this class, only five were committed when Norvell took the job in December 2015. At the end of that scramble to piece this whole thing together, Norvell was fired up about their potential.

“This is a home-run-hitting class,” Novell said on signing day. “As we’re coming through the door here, as this program is moving forward, this class is setting the standard for what Memphis Tiger football is gonna be all about.”

He was right. They found a quarterback right away in Ferguson, a junior college transfer who became a two-year starter and a first-team All-AAC selection. That’s a good place to start. They found a two-star center in Woodard who became a four-year starter. Wilson, a 45-game starter on the defensive line, was another two-star steal. Coxie has emerged as one of the AAC’s top playmakers and is coming back for more in 2020.

In all, this transition class yielded more than a dozen future starters plus some vital complementary pieces like Patrick Taylor Jr., who rushed for 2,800 yards and 36 touchdowns while backing up some of the conference’s best backs. And in the last three years, this class played in three conference title games and a New Year’s Six bowl. If you’re a Florida State fan, results like these should be mighty encouraging.

13. Mississippi State

Adjusted average: 2.84
Hit rate: 80%
Class rank in 2016: 28th
Four-year record: 29-23
Top signees: DT Jeffery Simmons, CB Cameron Dantzler, LB Erroll Thompson, OL Stewart Reese, OL Greg Eiland

Back on signing day in 2016, Dan Mullen only had room to sign 18 players due to a small departing senior class. For that reason, it was going to be tough for this class to crack the top 25 back then. Wasn’t too hard for the Bulldogs to make it into this top 25. For more developmental programs, these are the kinds of classes you need to sign most years in order to thrive.

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Simmons, a five-star signee and two-time All-SEC selection, proved to be one of the most talented players in Mississippi State history. But that’s no surprise. What makes this a strong class are the nine signees who kept improving throughout their careers — even through a coaching transition — and held down starting roles in 2019. Most of them are slated to return as seniors next season, too, and will be critical for getting the Mike Leach era off to a solid start.

14. Penn State

Adjusted average: 2.77
Hit rate: 70%
Class rank in 2016: 20th
Four-year record: 42-11
Top signees: RB Miles Sanders, OL Michal Menet, DE Shaka Toney, OL Connor McGovern, P Blake Gillikin

The first two classes James Franklin signed at Penn State ended up finishing No. 4 and No. 3 in our previous recruiting re-ranks. This staff did a masterful job of restocking the roster with those classes following the program’s NCAA sanctions, identifying players who’d stay in the program and develop into big-time contributors. Their 2016 class was no less important and has fared well over four years.

The top four players to come out of this class all hailed from Pennsylvania. Sanders was the nation’s No. 1 running back recruit and showed everybody why in 2018 after Saquon Barkley went pro. McGovern might’ve been the most important signee of this class, though, because he was able to come in and start right away at right guard and then center. The Nittany Lions needed as much help as they could get on the offensive line, so the success of McGovern, Menet and Will Fries was absolutely essential. The only reason this class ended up outside the top 10? Eight players left the program as transfers, though half of them were grad transfers.

15. Boise State

Adjusted average: 2.76
Hit rate: 67%
Class rank in 2016: 68th
Four-year record: 43-11
Top signees: DE Curtis Weaver, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., RB Alexander Mattison, OL Ezra Cleveland, CB Avery Williams

It’s hard to argue with the resume of this group: 10-plus victories every season, a 28-4 record in conference play and two Mountain West titles. Only five FBS programs have won more games than the Broncos during this four-year run. And they’ve developed some studs along the way, like Weaver, who earned Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year honors and broke the conference’s career sacks record while playing their “STUD” pass rusher role.

Weaver has to be the only player in the class of 2016 who earned first-team all-conference honors in all three seasons of his career. Bryan Harsin and his staff have developed seven members of this class into All-Mountain West selections. One rare feat that helped move this class up so high in the re-rank: a pair of walk-ons, Williams and Sonatane Lui, ended up becoming three-year starters.

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16. Iowa

Adjusted average: 2.75
Hit rate: 68%
Class rank in 2016: 47th
Four-year record: 35-17
Top signees: TE T.J. Hockenson, TE Noah Fant, DB Amani Hooker, QB Nate Stanley, OL Alaric Jackson

Kirk Ferentz is never going to concern himself with where Iowa’s recruiting classes rank on signing day. It’s never been a program goal to ink top-10 classes, and as long as he’s there, it never will be. The Hawkeyes’ 2016 class was made up entirely of three-star signees, guys with versatility and encouraging upside. And boy, did they find some serious gems in this group.

Great tight ends are so difficult to evaluate at the high school level. Landing both Hockenson and Fant, the first-ever tight end duo to get selected in the first round of the same NFL Draft, in the same class is an amazing feat. Hooker was honored as the Big Ten’s top defensive back in 2018. Kicker Keith Duncan was a consensus All-American in 2019. Stanley finished as the program’s No. 2 all-time passer and a three-year captain. Jackson and defensive lineman Chauncey Golston are poised to have big years in 2020. This class did have its fair share of misses and departures, but it outperformed signing day expectations like few others in this top 25.

17. Florida Atlantic

Adjusted average: 2.75
Hit rate: 80%
Class rank in 2016: 89th
Four-year record: 30-22
Top signees: RB Devin Singletary, TE Harrison Bryant, LB Rashad Smith, OL Brandon Walton, DE Leighton McCarthy

Lane Kiffin worked wonders with this class, and former coach Charlie Partridge and his staff deserve plenty of credit for assembling it. Singletary became one of the best players in FAU history after rushing for more than 4,200 yards and 66 touchdowns in just three seasons, and he seems poised to become a star in the NFL. Bryant became the program’s first-ever unanimous All-American and took home the John Mackey Award in 2019. Smith will go down as an all-time great for this program, too. It’s a smaller class with 20 players but one that had few busts, and together they won two Conference USA titles.

18. Oklahoma

Adjusted average: 2.70
Hit rate: 68%
Class rank in 2016: 19th
Four-year record: 47-8
Top signees: QB Kyler Murray, OL Ben Powers, CB Parnell Motley, LB Emmanuel Beal, DE Amani Bledsoe

Murray goes in this class because he joined the program in January 2016 after his one-season stint at Texas A&M. The Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick is one of just six players in this class who have started more than 10 games for the Sooners. If you count the players who are in the portal right now as departures, 10 members of the 22-man class ended up transferring. This was one of those classes that proved costly for Oklahoma’s depth on defense. But it’s also one heck of a testament to Lincoln Riley and his coaching staff: The guys in this class who stayed won four Big 12 titles and went to three consecutive College Football Playoffs.

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19. Oklahoma State

Adjusted average: 2.70
Hit rate: 85%
Class rank in 2016: 45th
Four-year record: 35-17
Top signees: RB Justice Hill, CB A.J. Green, OL Teven Jenkins, WR Dillon Stoner, LB Amen Ogbongbemiga

This was actually Oklahoma State’s lowest-ranked recruiting class of the decade, according to the 247Sports Composite team rankings. It doesn’t seem too bad today. This class did not experience much attrition and produced a long list of valuable contributors. Hill quickly emerged as one of the best players in the Big 12 and was the gem of a strong in-state class, and the Cowboys found lots of key players on defense in this group including Green, Ogbongbemiga, Calvin Bundage, DeQuinton Osborne and Rodarius Williams. And if they hadn’t signed Ogbongbemiga out of Canada, the Cowboys could have missed out on Chuba Hubbard.

Best of all, these guys aren’t done yet. Eight or more of these signees will be senior starters on a 2020 squad that’s aiming for a Big 12 title.

20. Texas A&M

Adjusted average: 2.70
Hit rate: 75%
Class rank in 2016: 18th
Four-year record: 32-20
Top signees: RB Trayveon Williams, DL Justin Madubuike, P Braden Mann, LB Tyrel Dodson, WR Quartney Davis

Kevin Sumlin and his staff put together another quality class here, and these guys really started playing their best football after Jimbo Fisher took over. Williams was phenomenal in 2018 as the nation’s third-leading rusher, and Mann was a unanimous All-American who won the Ray Guy Award. Madubuike has a chance to get drafted early following his breakthrough junior season.

The three Texas A&M classes we’ve done re-ranks for have graded out at 2.67, 2.70 and 2.70. There’s value in that consistency of developing multi-year starters. The challenge for Fisher is taking classes like these to another level and turning more of the Aggies’ signees into All-SEC players who push the program into conference title contention.

21. West Virginia

Adjusted average: 2.68
Hit rate: 76%
Class rank in 2016: 39th
Four-year record: 30-20
Top signees: QB Will Grier, S Kyzir White, TE Trevon Wesco, DE Reese Donahue, OL Josh Sills

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Not long before West Virginia started to put this class together, Dana Holgorsen elected to pivot a bit with his recruiting strategy. He and his staff determined the path to building a Big 12 title contender and staying competitive required bringing in just as many transfers as high school signees.

That blueprint worked out well with the 2016 class, which featured 10 transfers from FBS programs or junior colleges. Grier was the brightest star of the group and became one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, but most of those other transfers panned out, too. And that plan almost paid off big-time in 2018, when the Mountaineers came one win away from playing in the Big 12 title game. West Virginia went through a rebuilding year in 2019 under Neal Brown, but it’s worth noting that the 2016 class he inked at Troy finished No. 27 in this re-rank. This staff knows how to identify and develop talent.

22. TCU

Adjusted average: 2.65
Hit rate: 71%
Class rank in 2016: 21st
Four-year record: 29-23
Top signees: DE Ben Banogu, DT Ross Blacklock, RB Darius Anderson, DE Mat Boesen, DB Innis Gaines

This is another classic Gary Patterson recruiting class with a bunch of underrated signees who developed into key starters and exceeded expectations. It’s an especially strong group in a few areas. The Frogs produced three first-team All-Big 12 defensive linemen in this class. Banogu was an under-the-radar steal, a transfer from Louisiana-Monroe who turned into a top-50 pick. Blacklock has a chance to be a first-rounder in April, and Boesen was the conference’s sack leader in 2017. The running back duo of Anderson and Sewo Olonilua performed well, too, combining for more than 4,000 career rushing yards and 36 rushing touchdowns.

One thing that made this class uncommon: nine four-star signees, a first for the Frogs since they joined the Big 12 in 2012. A few of those more touted guys (Isaiah Chambers, Tyree Horton, Isaiah Graham) didn’t pan out and ended up transferring, but in the end, this class still had 20 players who stayed and contributed.

23. Stanford

Adjusted average: 2.63
Hit rate: 92%
Class rank in 2016: 16th
Four-year record: 32-20
Top signees: TE Kaden Smith, OL Nate Herbig, QB K.J. Costello, DB Malik Antoine, DT Mike Williams

Now this is an interesting class. Stanford typically fares incredibly well in our recruiting re-ranks because their signees develop and don’t leave. This class didn’t end up being quite as star-studded as 2014 or 2015. Smith was a sixth-rounder. Herbig made the Eagles’ roster as an undrafted free agent. Simi Fehoko looks like he’ll become a stud. However, 14 members of this class (including Costello) have entered the transfer portal this offseason to find new homes as grad transfers.

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Three have since withdrawn their names from the portal, so perhaps Stanford will end up bringing some of those seniors back. The hit rate for this group is more a reflection of the fact only two signees left the program before graduating. But that grad transfer exodus means this group is mostly done contributing to the program heading into 2020.

24. Ole Miss

Adjusted average: 2.61
Hit rate: 72%
Class rank in 2016: 5th
Four-year record: 20-28
Top signees: WR A.J. Brown, OL Greg Little, WR D.K. Metcalf, DT Benito Jones, DE Josiah Coatney

This was the best class in Ole Miss history in terms of recruiting rankings, and its legacy is certainly a complicated one. The class could have really fallen apart after coach Hugh Freeze resigned in 2017. Shea Patterson, Deontay Anderson and several other Rebels transferred and gained immediate eligibility elsewhere by alleging Freeze misled them about the severity of the program’s impending NCAA sanctions during their recruitment.

So the Rebels’ 2016 recruiting will certainly be remembered for that, but there’s a reason why this was considered a top-five class on signing day. Even after those departures, this group had talent. Brown and Metcalf are now, predictably, two of the NFL’s most exciting young wideouts. Little was a first-team All-SEC lineman and second-round pick, and Jones, Coatney and Myles Hartsfield started 30-plus games.

25. Temple

Adjusted average: 2.60
Hit rate: 73%
Class rank in 2016: 59th
Four-year record: 33-20
Top signees: DE Quincy Roche, OL Matt Hennessy, LB Sam Franklin, WR Isaiah Wright, DT Daniel Archibong

Matt Rhule’s final recruiting class at Temple takes the final spot in this top 25. This has clearly been a resilient class, one that has had three head coaches (four if you count Manny Diaz) but still managed to be productive despite so much transition and turnover.

Roche became the AAC’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 after racking up 19 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. He’ll try to match that monster year as a grad transfer at Miami. Hennessy developed into a 36-game starter and Rimington Award finalist as one of college football’s best centers, and Wright was a dynamic playmaker as a receiver and returner. Though those three are moving on, nearly a dozen of these 2016 signees are slated to return as fifth-year seniors. So this class is not done making its impact.

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Honorable mention: 26. Missouri (2.60 average); 27. Troy (2.58); 28. Appalachian State (2.56); 29. Kentucky (2.56); 30. Northwestern (2.54); 31. Syracuse (2.53); 32. Arizona State (2.53); 33. Houston (2.52); 34. Wisconsin (2.49); 35. Virginia (2.48).

(Top photo of Trayvon Mullen and Dexter Lawrence: Streeter Lecka / Getty Images)

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