Debating the Hockey Hall of Fame case for Joe Pavelski, John Tavares and other active stars

Publish date: 2024-06-23

The Hockey Hall of Fame will welcome its class of 2023 on Saturday. That’s always fun, but I prefer to look ahead. In this case, several years ahead, because we’re going to study the candidacy of a half-dozen players who are still active. The question is simple: Are they on a Hall of Fame track?

This is something I like to poke around with every so often, usually around HHOF time. Here are the columns I did during the 2019 offseason, another from later that year, and one from 2021, plus one that re-evaluated a few of those cases last year. (If you’re going to hit me with an “I can’t believe you didn’t mention …” comment, know that there’s a decent chance the guy you’re thinking of was already covered in one of those pieces.)

This time, it’s six new names, some based on your suggestions over the years. And just to make sure I’m not too far off track with my own judgments, I’ll be checking in with Paul Pidutti’s Adjusted Hockey, the excellent system that boils a player’s Hall qualifications down to a single number. Paul’s formula is hardly an argument-ender — nor should it be, because the argument is most of the fun — but it helps ground the discussion in some historical reality.

Let’s do this. Six names, starting with a fan favorite …

Why it’s a tough one: Pavelski is a super-easy guy to root for, which sometimes clouds these debates. He’s a seventh-round pick who became a regular and then a star, had the most productive season of his career as a 37-year-old, and is now firmly ensconced as the league’s top OGWAC. You won’t find many players with a similar career path, let’s just say.

The case for: It’s not often you see forwards still playing at 39 these days; it’s far rarer that you see those guys still contributing. Yet here’s Pavelski, playing maybe the best hockey of his career with minimal signs of a slowdown. He’s already passed 1,000 points and just cracked 450 goals last month. Not bad for a guy who also gets Selke Trophy votes almost every year.

The case against: The sprinkling of Selke votes are nice, but that’s all they are, as he’s never come close to being a finalist and has only finished in the top 10 twice. It’s a similar story with all the other awards and honors — Pavelski has one year as a second-team All-Star and that’s it. He’s only had two seasons in his career in which he got any Hart votes at all, and his best finish was seventh.

You could also argue that while he was a key piece for the Sharks for over a decade, he was never their best player, and I wonder if Joe Thornton and (presumably) Patrick Marleau going in over the next few years will give the committee some San Jose fatigue.

Worth remembering: He didn’t play in the Dead Puck Era, but did spend his entire career in the Only Marginally More Alive Puck Era, meaning the adjusted stats will be kinder to him than the basic numbers. Still, even on an era-adjusted basis, he’s 35th in goals (just behind Peter Bondra) and 51st in points (just behind Vincent Damphousse). Good, but certainly not any kind of lock.

Adjusted Hockey says: The site uses a sliding scale, in which “qualified” for a forward is 250. Pavelski is just short, coming in at a 245.

Should he get in? I might lean to a no if we had to vote today, but we don’t. Getting to 500 goals, which would mean one more healthy and productive year after this one, probably makes him a lock. So would a Conn Smythe, or playing a key role in a Cup win. So he may not be holding a winning hand right now, but he has outs.

Will he get in? I’d put his odds at a bit better than a coin flip, although his chances in any given year could depend on who else is up.

Why it’s a tough one: I’m not completely convinced that it is, but I wanted to have at least one defenseman on the list. And a weird thing happens when you look at the 20 or so active defensemen with the most games played — they’re all either close to sure things (Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Drew Doughty), guys with zero chance (Marc-Édouard Vlasic, Jack Johnson, Alex Goligoski, many more) or a small handful of question marks that we’ve already covered (Brent Burns, Ryan Suter, Mark Giordano).

That leaves you, Kris.

The case for: He’s been the Penguins’ best defenseman, nearly uninterrupted, for 18 years. He’s about to pass the 700-point mark, which barely cracks the all-time top 30 but will put him ahead of eventual HHOFers like Zdeno Chara and Duncan Keith. He’s a two-time second-team All-Star. And he’s had to battle through injury and adversity, which was recognized with a Masterton last year.

The case against: The Masterton and those two All-Star nods are the only awards he’s won; he’s never been a first-team selection or won a Norris, was only a finalist once, and only had one other year in which he was even in the top five. He was a key part of three Stanley Cup wins, but was never even close to being the best player on those teams thanks to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. And one of those Cups actually came while Letang was sidelined with an injury, suggesting he wasn’t exactly an indispensable piece of the Crosby-era contenders.

Worth remembering: Letang’s case is going to end up looking a lot like the one Sergei Zubov, who took seven years to get the call but had built a pretty solid base of support by then.

Adjusted Hockey says: A score of 286, just slightly ahead of the defenseman “qualified” cutoff of 284.

Should he get in? I’m not a Small Hall fanatic, but I do find that I’m a little bit tougher to convince than Adjusted Hockey, so it’s not a surprise that I’m a borderline “no” right now. But he’s already a far better candidate than someone like Kevin Lowe, so it certainly wouldn’t bother me if he did get in.

Will he get in? I’d bet that he does. Remember that stat about 18 years as a trio with one team — a pro sports record? Voters love that kind of stuff. Not enough to induct a completely unworthy candidate, but a guy with an already strong-ish case? He’ll get in.

Why it’s a tough one: He’s a borderline case that would be tough enough based on numbers, but since he’s a Maple Leaf with a big UFA contract, it’s going to be easy to get bogged down in narratives.

The case for: A No. 1 pick who mostly lived up to the hype, Tavares is winding his way through a very productive career. At 33, he’s about to hit the 1,000-point mark and has a strong chance to get to 500 goals. He’s been a first-team All-Star, and was a Hart Trophy finalist twice. He’s been a captain for two teams and represented Canada at the Olympics and World Cup. His most similar players, according to Hockey Reference, include plenty of Hall of Famers, including Mike Modano, Sergei Fedorov and Mats Sundin. He’s very good.

The case against: Very good, yes, but great? Tavares has always seemed to be a guy who left you wanting just a little bit more, first with the Islanders (who spent that No. 1 pick to get him) and now in Toronto (which spent a huge chunk of its cap). After 15 years, is one All-Star pick enough? Not necessarily — that similarities list also includes a bunch of borderline cases, like Eric Staal, Jeremy Roenick and Keith Tkachuk.

And yes, while it may be unfair to point to team results when it comes to individual players, detractors are going to mention how little winning Tavares has done in the NHL. He’s only been out of the first round twice in his career, once in New York and once in Toronto. That he scored the overtime series winner both times might help a bit. But only a bit.

Adjusted Hockey says: At a 256 score, he’s already passed the “qualified” line of 250 for forwards.

Worth remembering: For borderline cases, it really seems to help if there’s a fan base/media wing or two pushing the case. That’s why borderline guys who play for a bunch of different teams seem to have a tougher time than those who are closely identified with one team, like a Daniel Alfredsson or Bernie Federko. In theory, that would help here. But Islanders fans still mostly hate the guy, so unless there’s a post-career reconciliation, Tavares might be the rare star who has one market actively working against his case.

Should he get in? He wouldn’t have my vote if his career ended today, but if he finishes with 500 goals and something around 1,100 points, he’ll be tough to keep out. And of course, if he ever actually wins anything as the captain in Toronto, debate over.

Will he get in? I think so, but this also feels like a case in which the internal politics of the HHOF committee could be fascinating. You could absolutely see this being one of those names we debate year after year while the Hall keeps him waiting.

Why it’s a tough one: Like Tavares, Bobrovsky is another one of those cap-era guys for whom it can be tough to separate his performance from his contract. As the league’s highest paid active goaltender, he’s mostly been a bust. But then you dig into the numbers.

The case for: Bobrovsky already has two Vezinas, and history says that’s almost enough on its own. In the years when the award went to the best goalie (and not just to the fewest goals allowed), the only multi-time winner who isn’t in the Hall is Tim Thomas, who only had eight seasons as an NHL regular. Bobrovsky has 14 and counting, and is a few weeks away from cracking the top 20 in career wins. He already has a Hall-worthy resume, and last year’s playoff run certainly didn’t hurt.

The case against: Those two Vezina years are the only ones in which he finished in the top five, and one of them was a lockout-shortened season. His one full-season Vezina year (2016-17) was legitimately great, but it leaves him tied with Jim Carey, Olaf Kolzig and Pete Peeters, so it hardly ends the debate. And he really hasn’t been good in Florida aside from last spring’s heater, with a negative goals-saved-above-expected as a Panther.

As for those wins, there are guys in the top 20 ahead of him who aren’t in. Maybe get past Andy Moog and John Vanbiesbrouck before you start citing wins as a Hall credential.

Adjusted Hockey says: A 296, right at the “borderline” level for goalies but still a ways off from the 326 “qualified” mark.

Worth remembering: The Hall has been weird about goalies, inducting way too few for decades and then over-correcting with this year’s class.

Should he get in? For once, I think I’m higher on a player’s case than Adjusted Hockey’s model is. I think Bobrovsky is very close, although if he retired today, I’d slot him behind guys like Curtis Joseph and Pekka Rinne, closer to Tuukka Rask and Ryan Miller. But I could still see voting for him.

Will he get in? He’s a goalie, so who knows? My gut is that he might need one more strong season, and there’s little indication lately that he can deliver it.

Why it’s a tough one: Our second current Penguin, Carter is a name that seems to come up often when I ask for players to consider. At first glance, I don’t think he’s got the numbers to get in, but the argument gets a bit stronger as you dig deeper.

The case for: Carter is a year away from celebrating two decades in the NHL, so he’s got the longevity covered. He’s been a consistent producer almost the whole way, scoring 435 goals while finishing as high as second (in 2008-09) and in the top 10 three times.

So, the individual numbers are good. But it’s the team results that look great, starting with two Stanley Cup championships with the Kings. Remember, Carter wasn’t just a guy on those championship teams — his arrival in Los Angeles midway through the 2011-12 season felt like a turning point, the last big piece falling into place. He was also a key member of the Team Canada dream team that dominated the 2005 world juniors, and won a gold medal for Canada at the 2014 Olympics. The guy does a lot of winning, and the committee has always liked that from a borderline candidate.

For what it’s worth, his Hockey Reference comparables include Hall of Famers Denis Savard, Henrik Sedin and Gilbert Perrault.

The case against: He’s at 435 goals and 836 points, and based on his start this year in Pittsburgh, he may not be adding much to that total. He’s also never won an award or come all that close. Barring a resurgence this year and into next, the numbers just won’t be there.

Adjusted Hockey says: A score of 224, which falls short of the 250 cutoff for forwards, but it’s closer than I thought it would be.

Worth remembering: If you want a guy who won a lot while scoring 400ish goals and 800ish points, you could vote for Corey Perry and at least get a Hart Trophy into the mix.

Should he get in? I wouldn’t vote for him. I get that scoring has been down for decades — believe me, I know — and we can’t treat all the milestones the way we used to, but if we’re letting 800-point guys into the Hall, then I don’t know.

Will he get in? I don’t think so, but I’m also not completely sure it would qualify as a shock if he did.

Why it’s a tough one: At first glance, he looks a lot like Carter without as much winning, but he had a much better peak that included three All-Star honors and an Art Ross.

The case for: Benn’s only 34, and after rediscovering his game last year, he doesn’t seem all that close to being done. Still, the case is already rounding into shape, and it’s a borderline one. He’s got 365 goals and 856 points, which shouldn’t be enough on their own but do put him on pace to push 1,000 points. He was absolutely in the “best at his position” discussion for an extended period, although that position (left wing) is the usually weakest one. And while he had some nice scoring years, he’s more than a one-dimensional threat. He’s always been a physical player who could hit and fight when needed, and has been the Stars’ captain for 10 years now. Grit! Leadership!

But his best argument is that scoring title. Literally every eligible Art Ross winner is in the Hall of Fame. And even among the names who aren’t eligible yet, it’s all guys who are already sure things or superstars in their prime right now. Seriously, check out this list — the Art Ross is basically a Hall pass.

The case against: Benn won his Art Ross with 87 points, an embarrassing example of how bad the low-scoring era got. He would have been tied for 20th last year, tied for 19th the year before, and only sixth in 2019-20, a season that ended a month early. Yes, the Art Ross clean-slate thing is nice and all, but there has to be a line somewhere, right? Virtually every Norris winner is in the Hall, but that doesn’t mean we have to put Randy Carlyle in. Come on.

But when you get past the Art Ross, you’re left with a guy whose case isn’t very strong, at least for now. He’s John LeClair with a shorter peak.

Adjusted Hockey says: A 232, short of the 250 cutoff but within the range to where a strong finish could get him there.

Worth remembering: In 1992-93, 87 points would have put you 35th in league scoring, tied with Steve Thomas. I’ll stop beating this point into the ground now.

Should he get in? No, unless he sticks around for a while and/or produces more than expected over the next few seasons.

Will he get in? I didn’t plan it this way, but I kind of like that we started with Pavelski and ended with Benn, two teammates who also remind us to let things play out. Benn needs a great finish to be a strong candidate, but he doesn’t have to look far to see an example of what that could look like.

(Photo of John Tavares: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)

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Debating the Hockey Hall of Fame case for Joe Pavelski, John Tavares and other active stars